Decoding Color Forecasting: The Art and Science of Predicting Color Trends
We use color forecasts for nearly every project at Interwoven because we know that product designers ignore them at their own peril. Color is a powerful aspect of product design, and we’ve all had the experience of making a purchase (or deciding not to make a purchase) based on color. While easy to dismiss for those who don’t know the research and analytics behind these forecasts, color trends are big, big business, and they are important commercial tools precisely because they successfully anticipate the desires, especially the future desires, of consumers. Research conducted by yarn and textile manufacturers, fiber producers, retail groups, and trade fairs consistently demonstrates that the first response from customers, whether textile buyers or retail shoppers, is to color. This Insight article will dig into what color forecasting is, what goes into generating a color forecast, the value color forecasts have to offer, and how we can use them in the design process.
What is a Color Forecast?
Color is a potent language of expression and emotion, and the best designers learn to speak this language to elevate their work. Color forecasting is a multifaceted process that blends artistry and analytics to anticipate the hues that will shape the future of fashion and design. Anchored in strategic research and cultural insight, color forecasting is indispensable for designers and retailers seeking to stay ahead of the curve in an increasingly dynamic commercial landscape.
Color forecasting involves predicting which colors will be popular in the future, enabling proactive decision-making in creating collections that resonate with consumer preferences. The process involves delving into current trends, cultural influences, and the psychology of color, all while considering the seasonal and environmental dynamics that shape color preferences. A forecast typically reflects a specific area of the market, and has a time horizon that aligns with that market. For example, a women’s athletic wear color forecast might look a year ahead while a forecast for sport utility vehicles might look 2-3 years ahead to accommodate a longer production schedule. Prominent color forecasting services include Worth Global Style Network [WGSN], the International Color Institute [ICA], and the Pantone Color Institute. Access to the forecasts requires a membership and fees, reflecting the value of such services.
More Than a Sales Pitch
Skeptics of color forecasting argue that it primarily serves as a mechanism to reignite consumer interest in fashion and products on a seasonal basis, ultimately increasing sales. While color forecasting definitely holds significance in retail and manufacturing, the rationale behind the selection of specific colors often transcends commercial motivations.
Long before the formalization of color forecasting as a discipline, individuals selected and created colors for various applications, ranging from clothing to décor. Early color trends emerged as a result of innovative dyeing techniques and societal preferences rather than strategic marketing. For instance, in the post-War era, Americans gravitated towards cheerful pastel tones as a departure from the somber hues prevalent during wartime. These soft colors symbolized a renewed sense of optimism and vitality, reflecting broader societal sentiments of the time.
Developments in Technicolor in the 1930s revolutionized color trends, popularizing vibrant and vivid hues in cinema and beyond. This technological innovation allowed luminous costumes worn by iconic figures like Marilyn Monroe and Grace Kelly to captivate audiences in full color for the first time, sparking a cultural fascination with bold and dynamic palettes.
Currently, color trends increasingly serve as reflections of broader societal, cultural, and even political movements. During the pandemic, consumers exhibited a preference for earthy and calming colors over the previously favored ultra-bright and neon hues, reflecting a collective desire for solace and grounding in uncertain times.
As the influence of color on consumer behavior continues to evolve, the color forecasting industry integrates insights from history, psychology, and societal dynamics to anticipate future trends. Color forecasters offer retailers strategic guidance on selecting colors that resonate with consumers’ emotional and cultural sensibilities.
Navigating the Color Forecasting Process
As with so many skills in the realm of design, color forecasting is as much a technical skill as it is an art. The journey begins with thorough research into the current color landscape, identifying patterns and trends that serve as the foundation for future predictions. The process unfolds in a systematic manner, guided by research, analysis, and intuition:
- Research: The process begins with an exploration of current color trends across fashion, art, and design landscapes. By dissecting the prevailing hues and identifying emerging patterns, forecasters lay the groundwork for informed predictions.
- Analysis: Armed with a wealth of data, forecasters analyze current trends, seeking patterns and shifts in color preferences. By discerning the nuances of consumer behavior and cultural influences, forecasters gain insights into the evolving color landscape.
- Forecast: Drawing upon their research and analysis, forecasters venture into the realm of prediction, envisioning the colors that will dominate future seasons. By considering seasonal dynamics, historical trends, and emerging influences, forecasters craft palettes that reflect what’s to come.
- Test and Adjust: The predictions undergo scrutiny as forecasters test them against real-world applications, from fashion shows to editorial spreads. Any necessary adjustments are made based on feedback and emerging trends, ensuring the accuracy and relevance of the forecasts.
The Value of Color Forecasting
The scope of color forecasting extends beyond clothing to encompass accessories, footwear, jewelry, cosmetics, and beyond. Each category presents unique trends and color palettes, requiring tailored forecasts to meet consumer demands. By accurately predicting future color trends, designers and retailers can create collections that resonate across diverse product categories, driving consumer engagement and market success. Here are a few reasons designers and retailers find color forecasts so valuable.
- Staying Ahead of Trends: By anticipating future color trends, designers and retailers can stay ahead of the curve, creating collections that resonate with consumers’ evolving preferences.
- Enhancing Brand Identity: Strategic alignment with forecasted colors strengthens brand identity and fosters consumer engagement, distinguishing brands in a competitive market landscape.
- Optimizing Production Processes: Accurate forecasting streamlines production processes, minimizing waste and optimizing resource allocation, enhancing operational efficiency and sustainability.
- Driving Economic Growth: As a driver of consumer demand and market trends, color forecasting fuels innovation and economic growth, shaping the trajectory of the fashion industry.
Using a Color Forecast
Color forecasting involves selecting ranges of colors predicted for a particular product or market at a specific time in the future. Many color forecasts are tailored to specific product ranges (men’s knitwear, sport utility vehicles), but most will display three color groupings — lights, mediums, and darks. These groups typically include several colors known as classics (colors accepted over a long period, such as camel, navy, bottle green, and black). As consumers don’t constantly replace everything, color ranges for a specific season must consider previous season’s colors as well as new ‘fashion’ colors. Any color palette typically includes some of the previous season’s fashion colors, the new season’s fashion colors, and some classics within its lights, mediums, and darks.
Designers take the same approach, reviewing the color forecasts that are relevant for their product category and that have a timeline that aligns with their desired product launch date. Often, a designer will review their product category as well as tangential or related product categories to get a broader sense of the trends across an industry. These color candidates are assessed for relevance and suitability to the project, and a selection of them become part of a shortlist for the final palette, typically with a selection of light, medium, and dark tones, just like the forecast itself. Building a color palette is like putting together a puzzle, finding just the right combination of tones for the project at hand. The shortlist is rearranged and tweaked in various combinations as many times as needed to reach a final palette, often with mockups and material selection influencing the decision.
A Colorful Horizon
Numerous factors influence a consumer’s color choices. With increasing consumer awareness regarding color use, it is crucial for companies to comprehend these factors and their impact on their specific market. Marketers must understand how color affects consumers and color forecasting to provide appropriate colors for their market. Even a slight difference in shade from what the consumer expects can be disastrous for the manufacturer. Color forecasting is an indispensable tool in the arsenal of designers and retailers, guiding them through the dynamic landscape of design. By deciphering the language of color, forecasters illuminate the path forward, enabling proactive decision-making and creative innovation.
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